Euro area inflation rises to 3.8% as energy price increases accelerate

Euro area inflation is estimated at 3.8% in September, up from 3.2% in August. Eurostat’s release on 2 October puts the annual increase in energy prices at 18.8%, sharpening the pressure from a volatile part of household spending.

The other components moved at a different pace. Services inflation is estimated at 3.2%, food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.4%, and non-energy industrial goods at 1.1%. Energy’s annual rate measures prices within that category; it is not its percentage-point contribution to headline inflation.

Excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, inflation stands at 2.5%, against 2.4% in August. The smaller movement in this measure helps distinguish the sources of pressure. It does not make energy bills any less relevant to consumers.

The national figures also diverge. September’s harmonised annual estimates are 3.4% for France, 3.3% for Germany and 4.1% for Italy. A regional average describes a broad basket, rather than the experience of every household.

These are provisional estimates. Full September data are due on 16 October. Further releases will help establish whether the acceleration persists; this single reading does not determine the course of interest rates.

Sources: Eurostat · 2026-10-02

Original EIPRESS graphic. Eurostat September 2026 flash estimate, released 2 October 2026.